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☆ Bull market breaks its stride with the S&P 500's first 2% dip in a long while
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Was that a change in the market's character last week, or is it still the same old bull? This is generally to the good, as boring markets are bullish markets while they remain that way. Rates and commodities worries Other asset markets have also been at least inviting the question about a potential shift in character. The good news on this, as I keep insisting, is that it hasn't been a truly Fed-driven market. Though it's easy to imagine the market chafing at this kind of higher-rate, higher-growth equilibrium if it continues too much longer.

Persons: Ned Davis, Jerome Powell, hasn't, That's, We're, It's, Andrew Kelly Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, Investors Intelligence, Investment, Deutsche Bank ., New York Stock Exchange Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall Street gets key inflation data next week amid concerns the stock market is overbought
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the March consumer price index will show prices rising by 0.3% on a monthly basis, less than February's 0.4% advance. Similarly, the March producer price index is expected to show an increase of 0.5%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Monday April 8 Tuesday April 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (March) Wednesday April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (March) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/06) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index PPI Earnings: CarMax Friday April 12 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) Earnings: State Street , Wells Fargo , JPMorgan Chase , Progressive , Citigroup

Persons: Stocks, we're, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, FactSet, David Einhorn, CNBC's Scott Wapner, he's, Michelle Bowman, Bank's Tom Hainlin, Hainlin, Jamie Myers, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury Bond, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, . West Texas, Treasury, Fed, Investment Group, Investors Intelligence, American Association of, Walmart, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Index, Treasury Budget NSA, Air Lines, Price Index, Progressive Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan

☆ It's been four years since the market's Covid low with the S&P 500 returning 25% annualized since
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.

Persons: –, Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America

☆ Premarket stocks: Investors are on cloud nine. That could be a bad sign
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.

Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, “, Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York

☆ Investor sentiment surveys are flashing a big red signal for the market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Market optimism is reaching a fever pitch that could be cause for concern at least over the near term, according to sentiment surveys this week. The Investors Intelligence survey, which polls market newsletter authors, showed bullishness Wednesday at 60.9% and bears at just 14.5%, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. Similarly, the American Association of Individual Investors survey , which polls retail investors, indicated bullishness ahead by 45.9% to 21.9%. These surveys are useful primarily as contrarian indicators — when sentiment gets stretched in either direction, they serve as a cue for investors to move the other way. "Bottom line, in the short term this is very much worth taking note where a market rest/consolidation/digestion/correction/pullback, etc... are now more possible," he added.

Persons: Peter Boockvar, Boockvar Organizations: Investors Intelligence, Bleakley Financial, American Association of, Investors, Bulls

☆ Here’s what the S&P 500’s summer hot streak can teach us about the late 2023 rally and its staying power
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel

☆ Asia stocks start the week mostly lower, ahead of key data from China and India this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bullish sentiment among individual investors regarding the outlook for stocks over the next six months surged to 42% in the latest week, from 33.1% last week, and the first time the measure's been above the historical average (37.5%) since early August, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey. Bearish sentiment sank to 29.6%, a four-week low, vs 34.5% last week. Neutral sentiment fell to a seven-week low of 28.2% from 32.4% last week. Bullishness also climbed in the weekly Investors Intelligence poll of financial newsletter editors and advisors earlier this week, rising to 49.3% from 43.1% last week. Bearishness rose a touch, to 21.9% from 20.8%, while those in the correction camp narrowed to 28.8% from 36.1%.

Persons: Bullishness, contrarians, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: American, of, Intelligence

☆ Stock market heads into the second half with near 15% total return so far in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 had just sustained its worst calendar-year loss in half a generation. Textbook consolidation Last week's modest 1.4% decline in the S & P 500 did little to alter either the favorable underlying market trend or the notion that more consolidation might be in store. The median year-end S & P 500 target among Street strategists is 4250, 100 points below Friday's close, and the most-bullish forecast is for about a 5% further gain. And just as the market's performance has been skewed toward these hit hyper-cap tech stocks, so is the S & P 500's valuation. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 1-year Big picture: The market this year has chewed through plenty of perfectly valid excuses to falter without doing so.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jeremy Schwartz, Lori Calvasina, we'll Organizations: Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Ned Davis Research, New, Nvidia, General Motors, Whirlpool, RBC Capital Locations: DC

☆ The individual investor is pessimistic. Here is what that means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The percentage of investors feeling bearish about the stock market is reaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, according to a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. It's the fifth time the percentage of bearish respondents broke that 60% threshold since data began being collected in 1987. Before that, the percentage of bearish investors hit this level at two points in 1990. A high number of bearish investors, for example, means that many have already sold. The number of bears rose to 31.4% from 28.2% last week, Investors Intelligence found.

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